Solving the puzzle of support for Ukraine is important. As the Ukrainians burn through their military supplies fighting the Russians, re-supplying them becomes critical to their survival. And it puts the U.S. in direct confrontation with Russian forces now blockading the country. Putin’s often repeated threat of Russian “nuclear power” should give us pause. But if hanging the Ukrainians out to dry is not an option, we need to make a decision: is Putin bluffing? Or is he so far down the rabbit hole of delusional world conquest that he’ll pull the nuclear trigger? Comparisons to our confrontation with the Russians over the Cuban missile crisis have been bandied about lately. It’s worth talking about.
In October of 1962, Jack Kennedy’s administration found itself nose to nose with Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev over the ICBMs the Soviet Union was secretly installing 90 miles away Cuba. Kennedy took a hard line with Khrushchev about removal of the missiles and sent navy warships to blockade Cuba. We played chicken with the Soviets for 13 days. Their ships, loaded with ICBMs bound for Cuba, steamed toward the blockade while the world held its breath in anticipation of nuclear war. Behind the scenes, Khrushchev desperately wanted a way out. A secret letter from him expressing his fears of a war was delivered to Kennedy by a back channel—Soviet Ambassador Anatoly Dobrynin. At the suggestion of U.N. Ambassador, Adlai Stevenson, Kennedy offered Khrushchev a face saving way out. Through Dobrynin, Kennedy proposed the removal of missiles from Turkey and Germany in exchange for Khrushchev removing the missiles from Cuba. (Khrushchev didn’t know at the time that our missiles were obsolete and scheduled for removal anyway.) At the last moment, Khrushchev gave in and the Soviet ships turned around. JFK took us to the brink of a nuclear war, but not without a little insurance by negotiation. It worked and the crisis was averted.
The circumstances in Ukraine today are vastly different, of course. In Cuba, Kennedy had the power and flexibility of the U.S. Navy to enforce the blockade. Today no such blockade is possible. Our warships operating in the Mediterranean have access to the Black Sea, but the bulk of Putin’s troops are moving overland from Russian soil. Unlike Khrushchev, Putin is uninterested in negotiation, at least for the moment. But the common denominator of these two events is the necessity of taking a hard line in dealing with the Russians. They respect power. In fact, they fear the power of America’ military.
President Biden’s approach so far has been decisive and firm. When we need to get supplies to the Ukrainians, will he call Putin’s bluff? Putin has pushed all his chips to the center of the table. Is there some face saving negotiating ploy moving silently through a back channel somewhere? One hopes so. Putin needs a way out. His concern about his place in Russian history will be moot if he starts a nuclear war. That will be the catastrophic end of history. My money’s on President Biden to stay the course and keep a firm hand on the tiller.
mvd
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